As we move closer to the New Year, we are all hoping for a prosperous 2025, which, in turn, will be reflected in our investment portfolio. The insurance industry has gained 29.6% year to date compared with the Finance sector’s increase of 21% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s rise of 28.3%. Despite an active catastrophe environment and rate cuts, the industry has outperformed, banking on better pricing, exposure growth and accelerated digitalization.
Driven by their strength, insurers like The Allstate Corporation ALL, Unum Group UNM, Kingstone Companies KINS and Kemper KMPR have not only crushed the market this year but are expected to retain the bull run next year too. Adding them to your portfolio will be a smart move to secure your investments and enjoy strong returns.
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Prudent pricing, reinsurance programs and favorable reserve development helped non-life insurers sail through this year despite an above-average hurricane season.
Per a report by Aon, there were at least 280 notable global natural disaster events in the period between the first quarter and the third quarter, resulting in economic losses of at least $258 billion and insurance losses of $102 billion. Given an active hurricane season, Swiss Re estimates insured losses from catastrophes to exceed $144 billion in 2024, while economic losses are projected to be about $320 billion, much higher than the 10-year average. Nonetheless, it believes insurers are poised to deliver profits driven by better underwriting as well as investment results.
Global commercial insurance prices declined for the first time in seven years in the third quarter of 2024, attributable to heightened competition among insurers in the global property market, per Marsh Global Insurance Market Index.
Insurance Information Institute and Milliman estimate underwriting profitability to be under pressure, primarily due to soft performance in personal lines, which are expected to witness higher catastrophe losses. AM Best estimates cat loss to contribute 680 basis points to the expected combined ratio of 100.7 in 2024. Swiss Re estimates the combined ratio to improve from 2023 to 98.5% in 2024.
The economy has been growing slowly, as evident from the GDP, which increased at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. Per the Fed’s December Economic Projections, GDP in 2024 is estimated to improve 2%, while the unemployment rate is expected to be 4.4%.
With the expectation that inflation will move toward the desired 2%, the Fed cut the interest rate by 50 basis points in September and again in November for the first time in four years. All eyes are on the Fed now as it will likely cut interest rate again in its December meeting. Insurers are direct beneficiaries of a rising rate environment. They invest a portion of their premiums. Long-tail insurers tend to gain more from rising rates as they have more time to invest their premiums and earn a higher rate of return. With a lower rate of return, investment income will suffer. However, a broader invested base will limit the downside.
Increased awareness continues to support the life insurance market. According to LIMRA’s Third Quarter U.S. Individual Life Insurance Sales Survey, total new annualized premium has jumped 2% to $11.6 billion year to date, while the number of policies sold has risen 1% year over year. LIMRA projects sales to be solid through the end of the year, likely marking the fourth consecutive year of record premium if the economy remains strong with inflation and unemployment stable.
A solid surplus level continues to aid insurers in pursuing strategic mergers and acquisitions to gain market share, expand in niche areas and diversify operations into new business lines and geography.
The industry is undergoing accelerated digitalization. Increased use of technology like blockchain, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing, robotic process automation, Chatbot and RoboAdvisory, and insurtech solutions continue to expedite business operations and save costs.
According to the Fed’s September Economic Projections, GDP in 2025 is pegged to grow 2%, while the unemployment rate is likely to be 4.4%. Given the economic expansion, the insurance industry is well-poised for growth.
Fed officials, at the September FOMC meeting, looked to take the rate to 3.4% by the end of 2025. Thus, more rate cuts are in the cards in 2025.
Per Deloitte 2025 global insurance outlook, waning claim severity and growth in written premiums should drive non-life insurer’s performance. Life premiums are expected to improve 1.5% through 2025 in advanced markets. Strong sales in emerging markets like China, India, and Latin America could potentially boost premiums by 5.7% in 2025.
Despite soft pricing, analysts at Swiss Re Institute predict premiums to grow 4.5%. Insurance Information Institute and Milliman expect underwriting profitability in 2025. Combined ratio is projected to improve to 93.5 per Swiss Re Institute.
Insurers should continue to invest heavily in technology to improve scale and efficiencies, while M&A is likely to be on the rise as more insurers seek growth through expansion.
With the help of the Zacks Stock Screener, we have selected four insurance stocks that have rallied this year and are poised to retain the momentum next year. These top-ranked stocks have rallied more than 30% year to date.
These stocks have a decent earnings surprise history and have witnessed northbound estimate revisions.
Headquartered in Northbrook, IL, The Allstate Corporation is the third-largest property-casualty (P&C) insurer and the largest publicly-held personal lines carrier in the United States. It is one of the nation’s largest commercial lines property casualty insurance providers. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) insurer has an impressive VGM Score of A. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Its premiums are poised to improve courtesy of rate increases in auto and home insurance businesses as well as an enhanced distribution strategy. The company keeps expanding its Protection Services business with strategic acquisitions, which positions it for long-term growth. Divestments and cost-cutting measures are expected to enhance margins.
A strong capital position helps Allstate deploy capital via share repurchases and dividend hikes, thus enhancing shareholders’ value. It has grown its dividend by 13.6% in the last five years. Its dividend yield of 1.9% is higher than the industry average of 0.3%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALL’s 2025 earnings suggests 17.9% growth from the year-ago reported figure on 7.1% higher revenues. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is 7%. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings has moved up 3 cents in the past 30 days. The company has a Growth Score of B.
Solid revenue growth, the divestiture of non-core operations to enhance profitability and strong cash flow generation continue to drive this insurer. Shares of ALL have rallied 38.2% year to date.
Chattanooga, TN-based Unum Group provides long-term care insurance, life insurance, employer- and employee-paid group benefits and related services. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) insurer has an impressive VGM Score of B.
Premiums, the primary component of UNM’s top line, continue to gain from its healthy in-force block growth and higher sales. For the long term, it expects sales growth in the range of 8-12% and premium growth in the band of 4-7%. UNM is poised to grow on the operational excellence of Unum U.S. and Colonial Life.
Unum Group has consistently enhanced shareholders’ value through dividend hikes and share buybacks. UMM raised dividends 15 times in the last 14 years. It has grown its dividend by 7.6% in the last five years. Its dividend yield is 2.3%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM’s 2025 earnings suggests 5.7% growth from the year-ago reported figure on 3.9% higher revenues. The expected long-term earnings growth rate is pegged at 8.2%. The consensus estimate has moved up 0.7% in the past 30 days. The company has a Growth Score of B.
Strong persistency in group lines and the growth of new product lines, improved premium income, prudent capital deployment and a solid capital position continue to drive this insurer. Shares of UNM have rallied 61.2% year to date.
Headquartered in Kingston, NY, Kingstone Companies provides property and casualty insurance products to individuals in the United States. This Zacks Rank #1 insurer has an impressive VGM Score of B.
Ranked by S&P as the 15th largest homeowner insurer in New York in 2023 with a market share of 1.6%, Kingstone Companies is poised to gain from the $200 million market opportunity with its competing carriers exiting the personal property market countrywide in July 2024. Kingstone Companies’ growth strategy involves increasing focus on core business while prudently scaling back on unprofitable non-core business. It has been successful in having a price increase ahead of inflation, matching prices to risks. KINS expects direct written premium in core business to grow between 15% and 25% in 2025.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KINS’ 2025 earnings suggests 10.7% growth from the year-ago reported figure on 22.8% higher revenues. The consensus estimate has moved up 25% in the past 30 days. The company has a Growth Score of B. KINS now expects ROE between 24% and 32% in 2025.
KINS’ focus on its core business and on improving pricing and combined ratio, expanding margins and delivering strong earnings continue to drive this insurer. Shares of KINS have rallied 649.3% year to date.
Headquartered in Chicago, IL, Kemper is one of the nation’s leading specialized insurers. This Zacks Rank #2 insurer has an impressive VGM Score of B. Serving specialty auto insurance for underserved markets while providing life insurance for low/moderate income customers bodes well for growth. Its reinsurance program shields capital erosion. Its high-quality portfolio provides consistent net investment income.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KMPR’s 2025 earnings suggests 12.3% growth from the year-ago reported figure on 8.4% higher revenues. The consensus estimate has moved up 4 cents in the past 30 days. The company has a Growth Score of B.
KMPR focuses on delivering appropriate and affordable insurance and financial solutions. Shares of KMPR have rallied 35.9% year to date.
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The Allstate Corporation (ALL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
